Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.449862 1.642921 1.847842 2.081099 2.338782 2.614278 2.930618
2025-01-05 1.141077 1.396465 1.684906 2.033132 2.440365 2.899710 3.455113
2025-01-12 0.929889 1.224866 1.578125 2.028451 2.582965 3.238930 4.068654
2025-01-19 0.752935 1.067718 1.467235 2.004171 2.698649 3.557630 4.690244
2025-01-26 0.643198 0.979028 1.429377 2.065134 2.925204 4.032476 5.547225
2025-02-02 0.546736 0.893377 1.384255 2.111147 3.137628 4.509916 6.452508
2025-02-09 0.458691 0.805432 1.323999 2.128873 3.313696 4.955689 7.356201
2025-02-16 0.387608 0.731080 1.273038 2.153252 3.501111 5.433047 8.342962
2025-02-23 0.314589 0.640119 1.183397 2.107898 3.581260 5.765368 9.153511
2025-03-02 0.248063 0.546902 1.075671 2.019502 3.585440 5.985780 9.818858
2025-03-09 0.207589 0.493051 1.025923 2.018838 3.726019 6.420622 10.832989
2025-03-16 0.170613 0.437852 0.964861 1.990341 3.817145 6.784739 11.764341
2025-03-23 0.148958 0.411457 0.956427 2.060059 4.090483 7.475305 13.280069
2025-03-30 0.118412 0.357354 0.884592 2.003180 4.138780 7.805172 14.248984
2025-04-06 0.097235 0.319580 0.839380 1.991054 4.265892 8.276985 15.483976
2025-04-13 0.078645 0.282682 0.788982 1.961158 4.356606 8.693396 16.656182
2025-04-20 0.068377 0.265515 0.780098 2.016049 4.613747 9.419316 18.399211
2025-04-27 0.058845 0.247440 0.765684 2.057049 4.847641 10.120473 20.143553
2025-05-04 0.049556 0.226803 0.740791 2.071063 5.028303 10.736854 21.776256
2025-05-11 0.042020 0.209219 0.720267 2.092165 5.225338 11.396974 23.525925
2025-05-18 0.033545 0.184417 0.674448 2.045747 5.273940 11.777490 24.788838
2025-05-25 0.025611 0.157526 0.615856 1.957884 5.221919 11.957325 25.689369
2025-06-01 0.021196 0.143359 0.592195 1.955877 5.360877 12.523025 27.345405